| Overseas travel DI best in two years
Overseas travel to remain up over the next three months
In order to better assess prevailing business conditions, JATA (Japan Association of Travel Agents) keeps abreast of changes in the travel market by carrying out a quarterly survey
of market trends among member companies, indexed by types of travel, destination and customer segment. (A digest of the survey appears below.)
According to the "10th JATA Survey on Travel Market Trends"conducted from mid
to late August 2004, in comparison to the last survey, travel market conditions remained
favorable, while, contrary to expectations, domestic
travel declined sharply. Over the next three months, the overseas travel DI is
expected to remain positive. On the other hand, although domestic travel may
improve slightly,
it is not expected to move to the plus side.
| Business activity for the overseas travel market as a whole |
Conditions in the overseas travel market remain favorable, as China and Asia continue to rise
Despite a slight downward trend, DI expected to remain on the plus side over the next three months
Current situation: Unforeseeable factors not withstanding,upward trend
expected to continue
- "Compared to last year, overseas family travel staged a remarkable recovery
between July and September." (Opinion
of Second-tier retail agencies)
- "Business demand in China remains active, while jndividual travel continues
to
advance." (Comment by in-house travel agencies)
- Starting with China and Asia, all destinations tended to rise. A steady
increase in broad-based demand, including family travel, resulted in a DI
of 15, the highest ever.
Three-Month Forecast: DI should stay on
the plus side but a drop is anticipated
- "Overseas travel is in the news again thanks to the Olympic
Games and demand is expected to be very brisk. No anxiety about traveling
abroad is foreseen over the next three months." (Opinion of overseas travel
wholesalers)
- "Considering the influence in Japan of the popular Korean TV drama 'Winter
Sonata,' travel to Korea, especially among women, is expected to increase
in the future." (Opinion
of Second-tier retail agencies)
- Family travel is expected to fall off sharply over the next three months
(October to December), but middle-aged and senior travel should remain
steady. Demand for China and other Asian destinations is likely to continue
to rise, and the DI should stay on the plus side.
Summary
- The combination of summer vacation demand, diminished anxiety about traveling
abroad, and a renewed sense of prosperity in the domestic economy led to a
more significant rise in overall demand than for the period from April
to June, when demand returned to the plus zone. In particular, long dormant demand
in the family travel segment made a remarkable comeback. Although a slight
drop is expected over the next three months, demand for China and Asian
destinations is likely to continue to rise.
| Change in Combined Demand for All Destinations |
2002 |
2003
|
2004
|
| July-Sept.
|
Jan.-Mar.
|
Apr.-June
|
July-Sept.
|
Oct.-Dec.
|
Jan.-Mar.
|
Apr.-June
|
July-Sept.
|
Oct.-Dec.
|
| -37
|
-49
|
-93
|
-70
|
-33
|
-46
|
9
|
15
|
11
|
| *14
|
|
*figure anticipated in June 2004
|
| Trends in overseas travel demand
(by market segment)
|
Family travel significantly
up as middle-aged, senior, technical visits and business travel
move to the plus side
Rise in the senior segment anticipated over the next three months
- The current DI for all market segments moved to the plus column, with family
travel shooting up 25 points, and the middle-aged, senior, technical visits
and business travel segments changing favorably. Compared to the same
period last year, family travel skyrocketed 77 points and middle-aged and senior
travel rose70 points.
- Family travel is likely to drop 19 points over the next three months (October
to December), falling back into the minus column. On the other hand, the middle-aged,
senior, technical visits and business travel segments should be on the plus
side, with the senior segment in particular expected to rise significantly
over the next three months.
|
|
2003
|
2004
|
July-Sept.
|
Oct.-Dec.
|
Jan.-Mar.
|
Apr.-June
|
July-Sept.
|
Oct.-Dec.
|
|
Honeymoon
|
-65
|
-34
|
-39
|
-18
|
-23
|
-16
|
|
Family
|
-74
|
-49
|
-53
|
-22
|
3
|
-16
|
|
Female office worker
|
-69
|
-49
|
-57
|
-32
|
-14
|
-17
|
|
Middle-aged (45-59)
|
-63
|
-28
|
-37
|
-9
|
4
|
6
|
|
Senior (60 and over)
|
-66
|
-26
|
-33
|
-2
|
5
|
12
|
|
Incentive
|
-84
|
-63
|
-60
|
-24
|
-25
|
-16
|
|
Business / technical visit
|
-48
|
-27
|
-29
|
-3
|
1
|
2
|
| Trends in overseas travel demand (by destination) |
China and other parts
of Asia out in front as all destinations rise sharply
and move into the plus column. Recovery in America, Canada
and Oceania lags.
Rising trend for China and Asian destinations expected to
continue.
- The current DI for all customer destinations remained
favorable, with China and Asia up more than 20 points
compared to the previous three month period (April to
June). On the other hand, America, Canada and Oceania
were slightly down for the same period, lingering on
the minus side. Compared to the same period last year
(July
to September), China and other parts of Asia improved
96 and 85 points, respectively.
- As far as business activity over the next three months
(October to December) is concerned, conditions are expected
to remain favorable in China and other parts of Asia,
while it is hoped that America, Canada and Oceania, which
have been on the minus side, will gradually rise.
|
2003
|
2004
|
|
July-Sept.
|
Oct.-Dec.
|
Jan.-Mar
|
Apr.-June
|
July-Sept.
|
Oct.-Dec.
|
|
Hawaii
|
-63
|
-28
|
-27
|
0
|
8
|
0
|
|
USA (other)/ Canada
|
-67
|
-51
|
-54
|
-16
|
-20
|
-18
|
|
Europe
|
-47
|
-16
|
-22
|
3
|
10
|
4
|
|
Oceania
|
-50
|
-24
|
-28
|
-19
|
-21
|
-14
|
|
Micronesia
|
-59
|
-38
|
-19
|
-2
|
10
|
2
|
|
China
|
-76
|
-38
|
-49
|
-4
|
20
|
21
|
|
Asia (other)
|
-76
|
-36
|
-55
|
-12
|
9
|
12
|
| About the Survey on
Travel Market Trends |
In
January 2004 JATA (Japan Association of Travel Agents)
sent a request via e-mail to member companies to register
as survey monitors, and a total of 572 monitors registered.
The
quarterly Survey on Travel Market Trends seeks to
grasp trends in the travel market based on responses
to a questionnaire on conditions now and those anticipated
over the next three months.
The
survey asks participating companies to rate their
sales results for each destination and customer segment
by choosing from three categories;"good,"
"average" and "poor," Respondents
indicate "do not handle" for items outside
their business scope. Each share of "good,"
"average" and "poor" is then divided
respectively by the denominator, which is equal to
the total number of responses minus the "do not
handle" and "no reply" responses. Finally
each share is processed into the Diffusion Index (DI).
The highest possible index figure is +100, and the
lowest is -100 |
| Survey Overview |
Survey area: Japan nationwide
Survey target: JATA member company management
Survey method: Internet survey
Survey period: From Monday, August 8 to Thursday,
August 26, 2004
Registered companies: 572
Responding companies: 300
Response rate: 52.4% |
| Business Classification |
The JATA Survey on Travel Market Trends analyzes
business conditions based on business content. A definition
of each business classification and the number of
respondents to the survey is shown below.
|
Designation
|
Definition
|
Respondents
|
| Full service travel agency |
A large-scale travel agency
with a national network that provides a full
range of travel products |
30 |
| Overseas travel wholesaler |
A dedicated overseas travel
wholesaler |
30 |
| Overseas travel specialist
agency |
A travel agency with a business
volume of more than 5 billion yen, 80% of which
is related to overseas travel |
13 |
| Domestic travel wholesaler |
A dedicated domestic travel
wholesaler |
9 |
| First-tier retail agency |
Other than the above, a travel
agency with a business volume of 3 billion yen
or higher |
31 |
| Second-tier retail agency |
Other than the above, a travel
agency with a business volume of less than 3
billion yen |
134 |
| In-house travel agency |
A travel agency which mainly
handles travel arrangements for its parent company |
53 |
|
|
