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JATA Independent Surveys

(June 30, 2010)
Both Overseas and Domestic DI continue to show signs of recovery.
Headline


In order to better assess prevailing business conditions, JATA (Japan Association of Travel Agents) keeps abreast of changes in the travel market by carrying out a quarterly survey of market trends among member companies, indexed by travel type, destination and customer segment.
(An overview of the survey results is provided below)
According to the "JATA Survey on Travel Market Trends" conducted from mid May to early June 2010, Overseas DI showed its fourth consecutive increase while Domestic DI has also increased over two consecutive periods. This upward trend is expected to continue for both Overseas and Domestic DI over the course of the next three months (July to September).


Business Activity for the Overseas Travel Market Overall

There was an increase in all customer and destination segments over the period under review with particularly robust growth in the business/technical visit segment and for China.
Growth is expected to continue across all destinations over the following three months.


Current Situation: All customer segments and travel destinations showed improvement with China in particular performing strongly.
"Figures have improved significantly compared to last year when bookings were affected by the H1N1 outbreak." (Full-service travel agency)
"Trends are revealing a large recovery in demand for travel to China due to Expo Shanghai 2010." (Full-service travel agency)
"Figures show a slight increase in corporate business trips, conferences and company holidays compared to last year." (Overseas travel specialist agency)
DI for the overseas travel market overall rose 20 points to -30 compared to that of the previous three months (January to March).

Outlook for the Next Three Months (July to September): Further growth is expected over the next three months with the arrival of the summer holiday period led by the family, student and female office worker segments.
"Demand is returning for family summer holidays spots." (Overseas travel wholesaler)
"America/Canada is starting to show signs of improvement. Demand for travel that has been focused on Asian destinations has started to spread more evenly with signs of improvement across all destinations." (Overseas travel wholesaler)
Overseas DI is expected to rise a further 6 points to -24 over the following three months including the summer holiday period (July to September).

Summary
There has been a noticeable increase in demand for travel to China during Expo Shanghai 2010. Although at present, growth has been most prominent in the business segment, growth in demand, namely for individual and family travel, is expected to continue in the following three months (July to September) including the summer holiday period.



(Units: DI)

 

2 years ago (Apr to Jun) 1.5 years ago (Oct to Dec) 15 months ago (Jan to Mar) 1 year ago (Apr to Jun) 9 months ago (Jul to Sep) 6 months ago (Oct to Dec) 3 months ago (Jan to Mar) Current (Apr to Jun) Next 3 months (Jul to Sep)
All foreign travel -53 -64 -72 -80 -72 -66 -50 -30 -24
*-32





* Prospective figures for March 2010 survey

 

1.5 years ago (Oct to Dec) 15 months ago (Jan to Mar) 1 year ago (Apr to Jun) 9 months ago (Jul to Sep) 6 months ago (Oct to Dec) 3 months ago (Jan to Mar) Current
(Apr to Jun)
Next 3 months (Jul to Sep)
Full- service travel agency -81 -66 -76 -60 -46 -33 -14 -26
Overseas travel wholesaler -87 -85 -84 -72 -83 -68 -53 -30
Overseas travel specialist agency -64 -82 -100 -73 -89 -63 -25 -38
First-tier retail agency -80 -81 -77 -86 -64 -64 -17 -11
Second-tier retail agency -53 -62 -74 -71 -67 -50 -37 -27
In-house travel agency

-54 -84 -95 -72 -65 -36 -28 -13

Trends in Overseas Travel Demand (by customer segment)

With the exclusion of the student segment (3 points), all customer segments increased by 10 points or more.
Over the next three months, the family segment and student segment is expected to increase by 17 points and 13 points respectively.

In comparison with the three months from January to March, all customer segments increased by 10 points or more with the exclusion of the student segment (3 points).
Over the next three months (July to September), further increases are expected in the family segment (17 points), the student segment (13 points) and the female office worker segment (10 points).



  1 year ago (Apr to Jun) 9 months ago (Jul to Sep) 6 months ago (Oct to Dec) 3 months ago (Jan to Mar) Current (Apr to Jun) Next 3 months (Jul to Sep)
Honeymoon -68 -59 -57 -54 -43 -43
Family -77 -60 -66 -65 -47 -30
Female office worker -73 -63 -66 -59 -49 -39
Students -82 -73 -75 -63 -60 -47
Senior* -62 -42 -33 -31 -15 -16
Incentive** -88 -81 -78 -71 -54 -51
Business /technical visit -86 -80 -70 -63 -36 -38
*Senior: Customers aged 60 or over.
**Incentive: Travel offered as an incentive to business and organization employees.
Trends in Overseas Travel Demand (by destination segment)

All destinations showed improvement over the three months under review.
China in particular showed robust growth of 34 points.
Over the next three months, China is forecast to move into positive figures with the upward trend expected to continue for all other destinations.

In comparison with the three months from January to March, China, host nation to Expo Shanghai 2010, showed significant growth of 34 points followed by America/Canada at 25 points, Hawaii at 14 points, Europe 11 points and Micronesia at 10 points.
Further growth is expected over the next three months (July to September) with China expected to increase by 6 points placing it back in positive territory.



  1 year ago (Apr to Jun) 9 months ago (Jul to Sep) 6 months ago (Oct to Dec) 3 months ago (Jan to Mar) Current (Apr to Jun) Next 3 months (Jul to Sep)
Hawaii -71 -60 -61 -50 -36 -29
USA / Canada -84 -80 -75 -69 -44 -36
Europe -67 -53 -50 -39 -28 -18
Oceania -79 -84 -78 -65 -61 -55
Micronesia -68 -54 -60 -53 -43 -38
China -68 -59 -43 -35 -1 5
Asia -58 -45 -41 -23 -15 -9

About the Survey on Travel Market Trends

In January 2009, JATA (Japan Association of Travel Agents) asked all member companies to register as survey monitors and 640 companies did so.
The quarterly Survey on Travel Market Trends seeks to grasp trends in the market based on responses to a questionnaire on conditions now and those anticipated over the next three months.
The survey asks participating companies to rate their sales results for each destination and customer segment by choosing from three categories: "good," "average" and "poor". Respondents indicate "do not handle" for items outside their business scope. Each share of "good," "average" and "poor" is then divided respectively by the denominator, which is equal to the total number of responses minus the "do not handle" and "no reply" responses. Finally each share is processed into the Diffusion Index (DI). The highest possible index figure is +100, and the lowest is -100.


Survey Overview

Survey area: Japan nationwide
Survey target: JATA member company management
Survey method: Internet survey
Survey period: From Tuesday, May 18, 2010 to Tuesday, June 1, 2010
Registered companies: 640
Responding companies: 309
Response rate: 48.3%


Business Classification

The JATA Survey on Travel Market Trends analyzes business conditions based on business content. A definition of each business classification and the number of respondents to the survey is shown below.


Designation Definition Respondents
Full- service travel agency A large-scale travel agency with a national network that provides a full range of travel products 37
Overseas travel wholesaler A dedicated overseas travel wholesaler 23
Overseas travel specialist agency A travel agency with a business volume of more than 5 billion yen, 80% of which is related to overseas travel 16
Domestic travel wholesaler A dedicated domestic travel wholesaler 10
First-tier retail agency Other than the above, a travel agency with a business volume of 3 billion yen or higher 36
Second-tier retail agency

Other than the above, a travel agency with a business volume of less than 3 billion yen 138
In-house travel agency A travel agency which mainly handles travel arrangements for its parent company 49

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