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JATA Independent Surveys

(September 15, 2010)
Both Overseas and Domestic DI continue to improve with Overseas DI in particular showing strong growth.
Headline


In order to better assess prevailing business conditions, JATA (Japan Association of Travel Agents) keeps abreast of changes in the travel market by carrying out a quarterly survey of market trends among member companies, indexed by travel type, destination and customer segment.
(An overview of the survey results is provided below)
According to the "JATA Survey on Travel Market Trends" conducted from early to mid August 2010, Overseas DI showed its fifth consecutive increase while Domestic DI has also increased over three consecutive periods. Over the following three months (October to December) Overseas DI is expected to fall slightly while Domestic DI is forecast to remain relatively stable.


Business Activity for the Overseas Travel Market Overall

At present, DI for all customer segments and destinations are improving.
Over the following three months, the incentive and honeymoon segments should continue to improve and DI for China, Asia and Korea should maintain its position in positive territory.


Current Situation: All customer segments and destinations are showing improvements with the family segment and Europe showing particularly strong growth.
"The family segment in particular is performing strongly on the back of a range of products targeting family groups and a larger variety of activities." (Full-service travel agency)
"Europe is regaining popularity as consumers enjoy the benefit of the strong yen." (Full-service travel agency)
"Korea continues to maintain its strong popularity while China continues to grow as a popular destination helped by Expo Shanghai 2010." (Overseas travel specialist agency)
DI for the overseas travel market overall rose 24 points to -6 compared to that of the previous three months (April to June).

Outlook for the Next Three Months (October to December): While a slight drop is expected, China, Asia and Korea should maintain their robust growth.
"We hope that the China boom will hold out until the close of Expo Shanghai 2010." (Overseas travel wholesaler)
Overseas DI is expected to drop 11 points to -17 over the following three months (October to December).

Summary
Demand for overseas travel in general increased on the back of the strong Japanese yen. DI for destinations including China, currently hosting Expo Shanghai 2010, Korea, Asia and even Europe showed signs of growth. Strong demand is expected to continue for travel to China, Asia and Korea over the following three months (October to December).



(Units: DI)

 

2 years ago (Jul to Sep) 1.5 years ago (Jan to Mar) 15 months ago (Apr to Jun) 1 year ago (Jul to Sep) 9 months ago (Oct to Dec) 6 months ago (Jan to Mar) 3 months ago (Apr to Jun) Current (Jul to Sep) Next 3 months (Oct to Dec)
All foreign travel -62 -72 -80 -72 -66 -50 -30 -6 -17
*-24





* Prospective figures for March 2010 survey

 

1.5 years ago (Jan to Mar) 15 months ago (Apr to Jun) 1 year ago (Jul to Sep) 9 months ago (Oct to Dec) 6 months ago (Jan to Mar) 3 months ago (Apr to Jun) Current
(Jul to Sep)
Next 3 months (Oct to Dec)
Full- service travel agency -66 -76 -60 -46 -33 -14 21 18
Overseas travel wholesaler -85 -84 -72 -83 -68 -53 -15 -15
Overseas travel specialist agency -82 -100 -73 -89 -63 -25 9 0
First-tier retail agency -81 -77 -86 -64 -64 -17 16 -5
Second-tier retail agency -62 -74 -71 -67 -50 -37 -23 -34
In-house travel agency

-84 -95 -72 -65 -36 -28 -2 -17

Trends in Overseas Travel Demand (by customer segment)

In the period under review, all customer segments showed improvement with the family segment topping the list with an increase of 30 points.
The incentive and honeymoon segments are expected to see further growth over the following three months.

In comparison with the three months from April to June, customer segment DI increased over all segments. The family segment in particular showed strong growth with an increase of 30 points with the incentive, senior and business/technical visit segments also all increasing by approximately 20 points. The senior segment showed its first positive growth in 11 consecutive periods.
The incentive and honeymoon segments are both expected to increase further over the following three months (October to December).



  1 year ago (Jul to Sep) 9 months ago (Oct to Dec) 6 months ago (Jan to Mar) 3 months ago (Apr to Jun) Current (Jul to Sep) Next 3 months (Oct to Dec)
Honeymoon -59 -57 -54 -43 -36 -34
Family -60 -66 -65 -47 -17 -34
Female office worker -63 -66 -59 -49 -33 -39
Students -73 -75 -63 -60 -48 -56
Senior* -42 -33 -31 -15 5 -3
Incentive** -81 -78 -71 -54 -33 -30
Business /technical visit -80 -70 -63 -36 -17 -21
*Senior: Customers aged 60 or over.
**Incentive: Travel offered as an incentive to business and organization employees.
Trends in Overseas Travel Demand (by destination segment)

Overseas DI showed increases for all destination segments including Europe and Hawaii.
DI for some destinations, with the exception of America/Canada and Oceania, is expected to fall over the next three months.However China, Asia and Korea should remain in positive territory.

In comparison with the three months from April to June, all destinations posted increases including Europe at 30 points, Hawaii at 22 points and Asia with 19 points. DI for four destinations including China, currently hosting Expo Shanghai 2010, Asia, Europe and Korea moved into positive territory.
Over the next three months (October to December) America/Canada and Oceania are expected to remain stable and while DI is expected to drop for China, Asia and Korea, it should remain in positive figures.



  1 year ago (Jul to Sep) 9 months ago (Oct to Dec) 6 months ago (Jan to Mar) 3 months ago (Apr to Jun) Current (Jul to Sep) Next 3 months (Oct to Dec)
Hawaii -60 -61 -50 -36 -14 -24
USA / Canada -80 -75 -69 -44 -31 -31
Europe -53 -50 -39 -28 2 -13
Oceania -84 -78 -65 -61 -47 -47
Micronesia -54 -60 -53 -43 -35 -38
China -59 -43 -35 -1 15 9
Asia -45 -41 -23 -15 4 3
(Korea) - - - - 7 2

About the Survey on Travel Market Trends

In January 2009, JATA (Japan Association of Travel Agents) asked all member companies to register as survey monitors and 620 companies did so.
The quarterly Survey on Travel Market Trends seeks to grasp trends in the market based on responses to a questionnaire on conditions now and those anticipated over the next three months.
The survey asks participating companies to rate their sales results for each destination and customer segment by choosing from three categories: "good," "average" and "poor". Respondents indicate "do not handle" for items outside their business scope. Each share of "good," "average" and "poor" is then divided respectively by the denominator, which is equal to the total number of responses minus the "do not handle" and "no reply" responses. Finally each share is processed into the Diffusion Index (DI). The highest possible index figure is +100, and the lowest is -100.


Survey Overview

Survey area: Japan nationwide
Survey target: JATA member company management
Survey method: Internet survey
Survey period: From Monday, August 2, 2010 to Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Registered companies: 620
Responding companies: 300
Response rate: 48.4%


Business Classification

The JATA Survey on Travel Market Trends analyzes business conditions based on business content. A definition of each business classification and the number of respondents to the survey is shown below.


Designation Definition Respondents
Full- service travel agency A large-scale travel agency with a national network that provides a full range of travel products 41
Overseas travel wholesaler A dedicated overseas travel wholesaler 28
Overseas travel specialist agency A travel agency with a business volume of more than 5 billion yen, 80% of which is related to overseas travel 11
Domestic travel wholesaler A dedicated domestic travel wholesaler 10
First-tier retail agency Other than the above, a travel agency with a business volume of 3 billion yen or higher 39
Second-tier retail agency

Other than the above, a travel agency with a business volume of less than 3 billion yen 122
In-house travel agency A travel agency which mainly handles travel arrangements for its parent company 49

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